On Sept. 1, just as fall classes at the University of Illinois get rolling, Kofi Cockburn will turn 22 years old.
He’s already past the age of nearly all those projected as draftees in the 30-player first round of the NBA, an “on-the-come” basketball league.
Example: Last month the Oklahoma City Thunder presented the youngest-ever NBA starting lineup of two 19-year-olds, one 20-year-old and two 21-year-olds … on average, a full year younger than the starters for Lon Kruger’s Oklahoma Sooners.
Example: Illini All-American Ayo Dosunmu is on the verge of falling out of the first round because he stuck around in college for a whole three seasons.
You see, by NBA standards, Cockburn’s clock is ticking.
With this as a consideration, and with encouragement from his New York support group, the 7-foot Jamaican athlete greets Memorial Day with a determination — a plan, an intention — to move on.
It raises the question whether the recent departure of Illini assistant coach Orlando Antigua, a close confidant who recruited him and drilled him, affected his decision.
But this seems unlikely because Cockburn’s desire to turn pro has been evident all along.
Right or wrong move?You’d think, having been chosen a second-team All-American and drawing some support as the greatest Illini center ever, he’d be high on NBA draft boards.
But there are no such indications at this point. He has been tabbed just inside the 60-man list on a recent mock draft, but omitted previously.
His value will be more apparent in July after viewings at NBA workouts when it becomes clear whether his power-dunk moves can offset his shortcomings in defense away from the basket, passing (five assists in 31 Illini games this past season), dribbling and medium-range shooting (55.3 percent on free throws). With some exceptions, even the “big men” shoot threes in the NBA these days, and
The 7-foot, 285-pound Cockburn doesn’t fit that mold.
Without seeing NBA workouts against comparable centers, it’s near impossible to ascertain whether Cockburn is making the right decision. At this time a year ago, Dosunmu was bent on turning pro but changed his mind. Cockburn would have the same option in July unless he signs with an agent not certified by the NCAA.
The concern with Cockburn is that, while he made massive offensive strides in scoring 17.7 points via 65.4 percent shooting as a sophomore, it’s doubtful whether another collegiate season would carry him into the contracts guaranteed in the NBA’s first round.
An extra year didn’t work for consensus National Player of the Year Luke Garza, and the Iowa center is far more adept from long range (though facing similar stress on defense when asked to defend away from the basket).
No one like himBrad Underwood can’t replace Cockburn at Illinois. He was the centerpiece in a two-year run that produced four more conference victories than any other Big Ten team.
There’s no one like him in the transfer portal, and most power forwards, like still available Tre Mitchell of Massachusetts, prefer to play a position that will blend with their future.
So Underwood must undertake summer plans to reshape his post attack without Cockburn and backup Giorgi Bezhanishvili, who is also turning pro.
The starting role falls to defensive specialist Omar Payne, who started 15 of 54 games the last two seasons at Florida, averaging 3.8 points.
Assuming Underwood can obtain 25 minutes per game from Payne, that leaves three-eighths of the center time to an unknown.
With 6-10 Jermaine Hamlin transferring to Eastern Illinois, the backup role might fall to 6-10 Coleman Hawkins or 7-foot Brandon Lieb, sophomores on the slender side. Or perhaps Belgian Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk (6-8, 235), of whom little is known since he missed most of the last two seasons with a leg injury.
Underwood still has room on his roster because fifth-year seniors Trent Frazier and Da’Monte Williams don’t count against the NCAA’s 13-man scholarship limit.
Missing outCockburn is the difference between Illinois entering the 2021-22 season as a Top 25 team, or entering unranked.
Within the Big Ten, leading shot blockers Liam Robbins of Minnesota (to Vanderbilt), Myles Johnson of Rutgers (to UCLA) and Garza have departed.
And Cockburn has already shown he would stack up favorably against the league’s best pivot returnees: Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson (declared for NBA draft, but will probably return), Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis and the Purdue duo of Trevion Williams (also testing NBA draft market) and Zach Edey.
Furthermore, if Cockburn elected to reverse course and stay, he would be among the first to take advantage of the new name, image and likeness rule that will permit athletes to capitalize financially.
If Cockburn follows through with his intention to turn pro, best guess is that he’ll make his way to an NBA preseason camp and, at some point, be farmed out to the G-League for seasoning.
Perhaps a year of pro preparation will bring him closer to the NBA than a third year at Illinois … but it won’t be the same in terms of fanfare and recognition, not to mention education.
Loren Tate writes for The News-Gazette. He can be reached at ltate@news-gazette.com.
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